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Tag: economy
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2010.07.03 02:30:05 Hernando de Soto famously pointed out that a key difference between developed countries and developing countries was the possibility to pledge land title or real estate as a collateral to gain access to credit. Financing, as we know, is the blood of the economy. If the economy is powered by the muscle...... Read more...
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2010.06.26 15:03:52 Finally, there it is, the finance bill has been agreed upon, but what do I do with my portfolio? The answer is not obvious, unfortunately. The finalized bill takes away the uncertainty of surprises, a good thing for markets. Uncertainty is always traded at a discount, so we can expect a very short term...... Read more...
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2010.05.24 22:47:35 Betting against the Sterling is back in vogue as speculation reaches record levels after the UK general elections. Positioning data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, often used as a proxy for hedge fund activity, showed that speculators had extended their bets against sterling from 72,188 contracts...... Read more...
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2010.04.07 14:57:50 Did you ever wonder what this financial crisis taught us? If you did, you probably came to the same conclusion as me: if you don't cheat, steal and bribe, you go down. As a banker, your job is to manage risk. You borrow money from depositors and you lend it to entrepreneurs and businesses who create jobs....... Read more...
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2010.03.24 17:07:36 2009 saw markets being flooded with liquidity to boost the economies worldwide as an incentive to resume lending by the banks. Governments around the world launched massive stimulus packages to keep their economies going, and the markets that fared well were mostly emerging markets, why? As Joseph Stiglitz...... Read more...
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2010.03.17 13:23:32 The VIX index is going slowly but steadily downwards, and it is now back at pre-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels. Quite an interesting sign, since the last time the VIX went down steadily, was in 2003, followed by the boom years fueled by the credit boom. What the VIX is telling us is that the market...... Read more...
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2010.02.25 10:32:06 The irrationality of markets keeps on amazing me. Markets edge up by almost 1% in the US after Ben Bernanke tells lawmakers that the economy is in bad shape and that interest rates will have to be kept low. Basically, markets cheered on the cheap credit that keeps on flowing, it sounded like free crack...... Read more...
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2010.02.08 23:17:57 The financial times are once again set for a high level of uncertainty. The euro-zone is entering a critical phase with European governments practically helpless in front of the growing Greek social unrest. The Southern countries are suffering while trying to reassure markets that everything will be...... Read more...
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2010.01.26 22:01:06 2009 was a great year. Stock markets rising faster than the tide at Mt Saint Michel, something I did not see in my (young) life, but what is it going to be in 2010? It looks like, in the short term, it is going to go down. Analysts will talk of correction, but what are the underlying factors? Liquidity...... Read more...
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2009.12.11 17:23:06 Into real estate of course !Real estate prices are now at normal levels, and by the time the bonuses are paid out, in February / March 2010, the houses will be even cheaper. Inflation is coming, the huge liquidity pumped into the system will fuel inflation. So what do you do to counter inflation? You...... Read more...
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2009.11.19 10:48:10 Finance does not create value, it is actually a support function to help the real economy (manufacturing, technology, services, etc.) function. A bit like the customer support helpdesk when your SAP system does not do what you want. However, the main difference is the salary and bonus. Why? I wonder why,...... Read more...
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2009.09.30 11:13:34 We trust the past and fear the future - a good summary of investor sentiment when the confidence is low. I trust the confidence is high for the moment, based on the past performance of the few months though. We had a great run, from March 6th until now, a fantastic run to be fair, and if you invested...... Read more...
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2009.04.29 18:43:08 Citigroup in trouble after posting so called profits, Societe Generale Chairman resigning, AIG on the brink of default, and that is where the domino game starts again AIG has moved to stave off the risk of default on $234bn of derivatives by persuading a senior executive at its troubled financial products...... Read more...
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2009.04.23 09:58:02 With a shrinking GDP and the property prices boom we had in 2006 - 2007, property prices were bound to go down. Year-on-year property prices are down 20% now, but did we touch the bottom? An analysis by DTZ shows that property prices are not set to recover before mid-2010. With the bulk of new condos...... Read more...
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2009.04.22 20:38:42 The head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth gives his view on where to invest: Asia (ex-Japan). New York-based Aaron Gurwitz said on Wednesday that there is a 80 per cent chance that the global economy could recover by the end of this year, with Asia at the forefront of the revival. The...... Read more...
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2009.03.31 10:17:48 It was a nice bear rally, but for those who thought the economy was bouncing back, it was just a stock market bounce, the economy is still in bad shape. The financial statements of the first quarter will be disclosed soon, and the nervousness is gaining momentum. This translates into volatility, and traders...... Read more...
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2009.02.22 21:48:56 How can you try to get a feel on how the medium and high-end real estate prices are going to evolve in Singapore? By surveying foreign schools. In November last year, the American school saw many of their pupils set to leave by the year end. The economy in the US took a hit before any other country, and...... Read more...
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2009.01.14 10:42:57 Policymakers claim they are taking strong actions in line with the lessons from the past, but after reading what John Maynard Keynes wrote in 1930, I see many resemblances: A wide gulf, therefore, is set between the ideas of lenders and the ideas of borrowers for the purpose of genuine new capital investment;...... Read more...
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2008.12.27 16:19:51 McKinsey came out with the results of an interesting study: Industry Trends during a recession. The study was conducted during the recessions of '91 - '92 and '01 - '02. The results are impressive, it here are a few key takeaway points:Consumers spend on average 10% The spend less on entertainment, food...... Read more...
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2008.12.10 00:00:00 A good proxy for economic activity is the demand of oil, and the demand looks grim. According to the US energy department, demand for oil will continue to fall in 2009 with a continued decrease of approximately 450,000 barrels per day. The world economy is indeed in a bad shape, and it does not look...... Read more...
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